2021 Golden Globes Predictions

Features

With the nominations for this year’s Golden Globes arriving tomorrow, on February 3rd, contributor Sam Howe has put together a complete collection of his predictions for both the film and TV awards. These predictions have been determined through a mix of tracking momentum from the season so far, pre-cursor awards, Golden Globes precedents, and personal intuition. The Globes are always a fascinating event that definitely builds momentum towards the Oscars but, especially in this year of extended eligibility and delayed ceremonies, it is important to recognize they are very different. The Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and are often more easily swayed by bigger stars instead of potentially better but more niche contenders, so that is worth noting, for both Film and TV sides.

We ranked each category from top to bottom, with the top being what we view as the current favorite in that category and then working its way down from there.

Film

The split between ‘drama’ and ‘comedy/musical’ at the Globes always throw up opportunities for certain people to gain momentum where they wouldn’t usually, and also sometimes allow for someone being campaigned supporting elsewhere to get a lead nomination here. In general, the ‘drama’ side of the Globes this year is heavily stacked with the major awards contenders and the ‘comedy/musical’ side is much more likely to throw up wildcards.

The Globes often choose to go for big name stars over critic’s darlings, which can throw up some surprises and frustrate people. A good example of that is how I see Riz Ahmed as someone who will be a major player all awards season and almost a slam-dunk Oscar nominee, but find it likely a big star like Tom Hanks may take his place here.

Predicted Most Nominations – Mank – 6

Best Picture (Drama)

  • Nomadland
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Mank
  • Da 5 Bloods
  • Promising Young Woman

Alternate: One Night in Miami…

Best Lead Actor (Drama)

  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father
  • Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
  • Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Tom Hanks – News of the World

Alternate: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

A group of men in suits stand in front of a building.
'One Night in Miami...' (Amazon Studios)

Best Lead Actress (Drama)

  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland
  • Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie
  • Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

Alternate: Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

A man and a woman dancing around in a pharmacy.
Carey Mulligan and Bo Burnham in 'Promising Young Woman'

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • The Prom
  • Hamilton
  • Palm Springs
  • On the Rocks

Alternate: Emma.

Best Lead Actor (Comedy/Musical) 

  • Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Andy Samberg – Palm Springs
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton
  • Pete Davidson – The King of Staten Island
  • Leslie Odom Jr – Hamilton

Alternate: James Corden – The Prom

Best Lead Actress (Comedy/Musical) 

  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Meryl Streep – The Prom
  • Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
  • Cristin Milioti – Palm Springs
  • Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma

Alternate: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

Best Supporting Actor   

  • Leslie Odom Jr – One Night in Miami…
  • Bill Murray – On the Rocks
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Alternate: Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress 

  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank
  • Olivia Colman – The Father
  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
  • Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
  • Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian

Alternate: Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

Best Direction 

  • Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
  • David Fincher – Mank
  • Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
  • Regina King – One Night in Miami…

Alternate: Florian Zeller – The Father

Best Screenplay 

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Nomadland
  • Mank
  • One Night in Miami…
  • Promising Young Woman

Alternate: The Father

A group of men stand over a table in deep discussion.
'Trial of the Chiacgo 7' (Netflix)

Best Animated Film 

  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers
  • Over the Moon
  • Onward
  • Trolls: World Tour

Alternate: The Croods: A New Age

Best Foreign Language Film 

  • Minari
  • Another Round
  • The Life Ahead
  • La Llorona
  • I Carry You with Me

Alternate: A Sun

Best Original Score

  • Soul
  • Mank
  • The Midnight Sky
  • Minari
  • Da 5 Bloods

Alternate: News of the World

Best Original Song

  • “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami…
  • “Rocket to the Moon” – Over the Moon
  • “Wear Your Crown” – The Prom
  • “Husavik” – Eurovision: The Story of Fire Saga
  • “Only the Young” – Miss Americana

Alternate: “Wuhan Flu” – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

A woman sitting at a table playing chess by herself.
'The Queen's Gambit' (Netflix)

TV

Due to having very different qualification periods, the Golden Globes often have very different nominees to the Emmys, so they can be very interesting to predict. Just as the film side, they often go for bigger names and more mainstream shows over the more indie or risk-taking show, but that is equally not taking anything away from the more mainstream entertainment. TV has been a huge distraction for people during the pandemic, so this will be an eagerly anticipated set of nominations.

Predicted Most Nominations – The Crown – 6

Best TV Series (Drama)

  • The Crown
  • The Mandalorian
  • Ozark
  • Lovecraft Country
  • Bridgerton

Alternate: Perry Mason

Best Lead Actor in a TV Series (Drama) 

  • Matthew Rhys – Perry Mason
  • Josh O’Connor – The Crown
  • Jason Bateman – Ozark
  • Jonathan Majors – Lovecraft Country
  • Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

Alternate: Pedro Pascal – The Mandalorian

Best Lead Actress in a TV Series (Drama) 

  • Olivia Colman – The Crown
  • Laura Linney – Ozark
  • Emma Corrin – The Crown
  • Jurnee Smollett – Lovecraft Country
  • Jodie Comer – Killing Eve

Alternate: Sarah Paulson – Ratched

Best TV Series (Comedy)  

  • Schitt’s Creek
  • Ted Lasso
  • The Great
  • The Flight Attendant
  • Ramy

Alternate: What We Do in the Shadows

Best Lead Actor in a TV Series (Comedy) 

  • Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
  • Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Ramy Youssef – Ramy
  • Nicholas Hoult – The Great
  • Matt Berry – What We Do in the Shadows

Alternate: Dave Burd – Dave

Best Lead Actress in a TV Series (Comedy) 

  • Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek
  • Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
  • Elle Fanning – The Great
  • Lily Collins – Emily in Paris
  • Christina Applegate – Dead to Me

Alternate: Jane Levy – Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist

Best Limited-Series or TV Movie

  • The Queen’s Gambit
  • Small Axe
  • Normal People
  • I May Destroy You
  • The Undoing

Alternate: Mrs. America

Best Lead Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie

  • Hugh Jackman – Bad Education
  • Paul Mescal – Normal People
  • Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much is True
  • Hugh Grant – The Undoing
  • Ethan Hawke – The Good Lord Bird

Alternate: Chris Rock – Fargo

Best Lead Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie 

  • Anya Taylor-Joy – The Queen’s Gambit
  • Cate Blanchett – Mrs. America
  • Shira Haas – Unorthodox
  • Nicole Kidman – The Undoing
  • Daisy Edgar-Jones – Normal People

Alternate: Michaela Coel – I May Destroy You

Best Supporting Actor

  • Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Brendan Gleeson – The Comey Rule
  • Mahershala Ali – Ramy
  • John Boyega – Small Axe
  • Tobias Menzies – The Crown

Alternate: Tom Pelphrey – Ozark

Best Supporting Actress 

  • Gillian Anderson – The Crown
  • Julia Garner – Ozark
  • Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek
  • Marielle Heller – The Queen’s Gambit
  • Uzo Aduba – Mrs. America

Alternate: Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown

The Golden Globe nominations will be announced tomorrow, Wednesday, February 3, 2021. The show will take place on Sunday, February 28, 2021.